What Greater Victoria's fall market is quietly telling us

There's a particular kind of light in Victoria in September. 🍂 The mornings turn cool, the harbour goes gold around five o'clock, and something in us starts taking stock. For a lot of the people I talk to, fall is when the thinking starts. Not the listing, not the shopping — the thinking.

So if you've been quietly wondering whether this is the year to make a move, here's what the market actually looked like in August, and what it might mean for you.

More people are moving than last year

A total of 591 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in August. That's 12.6% more than the 525 that sold in August 2025, and according to board chair Fergus Kyne, it was the strongest sales activity we've seen in five years for the month.

The gains showed up where you'd expect:

• Single-family homes: 309 sales, up 15.3% from last August
• Condominiums: 175 sales, up 15.1%
• Townhomes: 63 sales, down 4.5%

Sales were down 12.2% from July, but that's just summer doing what summer does. The year-over-year picture is the one worth paying attention to, and it's pointing up.

There's still plenty to choose from

At the end of August there were 3,662 active listings on the board's MLS® system. That's down 4.8% from July, and up 1.7% from a year ago. Inventory, in other words, is holding steady.

This is the part I'd gently underline. The board measures market balance using the ratio of sales to active listings: below 17% puts downward pressure on prices, above 28% puts upward pressure on them, and anything in between is a balanced market. Greater Victoria has been sitting inside that middle band through this year's selling season, and August was no exception.

A balanced market is a calmer place to make a decision. There's enough selection that you can take your time, and enough activity that a well-prepared home still finds its person.

Prices are doing very little, and that's the news

After a few years of dramatic headlines, the numbers this August are refreshingly undramatic. In the Victoria Core:

• Single-family home: $1,301,800, down 0.6% from July and down 1.2% from a year ago
• Condominium: $553,600, up 0.9% from July and up 0.9% year over year
• Townhome: $856,300, essentially flat month over month and up 1.7% from last year

Those are small movements. For someone weighing a change, that stability is worth more than it sounds — it means the ground isn't shifting underneath you while you plan.

The Peninsula and the Westshore have their own stories

One board-wide number never tells the whole truth on the Island. Here's how August looked a little further out:

• Saanich Peninsula: single-family homes at $1,266,000 (down 1.9% year over year), condos at $630,300 (up 3.3%), townhomes at $844,300 (up 2.2%)
• Westshore: single-family homes at $1,031,900 (up 0.5%), condos at $485,400 (down 3.8%), townhomes at $713,700 (up 0.8%)

Notice how differently condos are behaving in Sidney and the Peninsula versus the Westshore. If you're downsizing and thinking about trading the house and garden for something simpler, where you look matters as much as what you look at.

Borrowing costs aren't going anywhere for now

On September 2, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, where it has been since last October. Inflation is running near 3%, mostly because of gasoline prices, and the Bank noted that the risks of it staying high have grown. The next announcement is October 28.

I mention this only because so many people tell me they're waiting for rates to fall before they do anything. That's a reasonable instinct, but it's worth asking what you're really waiting for. If the right home on the right street comes up this October, a quarter-point somewhere down the road probably isn't the thing that should decide it.

So what does this mean for you?

If you're thinking about selling, buyers are out there and they're active — but they're also selective. As Chair Kyne put it, homes that are well-priced and well-presented are attracting the strongest interest. With this much inventory available, your home is being compared to everything else on the market, so pricing it honestly from day one matters more than almost anything else you can do.

If you're buying, you have something buyers haven't always had here: time. Time to see a few places, time to think it over, time to sleep on it. Use it.

If you're downsizing, this is a decent moment. Single-family values in the Core have held their ground while condos on the Peninsula have edged up, and there's enough selection that you don't have to take the first thing that's merely fine.

If you're new to the Island, a balanced market is a much kinder introduction than a frantic one. Give yourself a season to get to know the neighbourhoods before you commit to one.

A move is rarely just about a house. It's about timing, and what you want the next chapter to feel like. If you're turning something over this fall, I'm always happy to chat — no pressure, no hard sales, just honest conversation and a bit of thoughtful planning. ☕

You can always reach me through my website, and I'll gladly walk you through what these numbers look like for your specific street, not just the region.

Statistics are from the Victoria Real Estate Board's August 2026 report, released September 2026, and the Bank of Canada's September 2, 2026 rate announcement. Photos: Armon Arani and Ronin on Unsplash.

MLS® property information is provided under copyright© by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and Victoria Real Estate Board. The information is from sources deemed reliable, but should not be relied upon without independent verification.